"Long-Term Budget Outlook Act"; requires State Treasurer to prepare and submit annual multi-year fiscal outlook analysis report.

2026-2027 Regular Session Introduced by Clinton Calabrese and 1 co-sponsor

The act requires annual multi-year fiscal outlooks showing projected deficits under different economic scenarios to guide budget decisions and transparency.

Introduced, Referred to Assembly State and Local Government Committee

Overview

A 4143 (New Jersey, 2026) titled the Long-Term Budget Outlook Act would require the State Treasurer to prepare and submit an annual, then updated, multi-year fiscal outlook analyzing the trajectory of the Governor’s proposed budget. The intent is to publicly reveal the budget’s potential structural deficits over the next three fiscal years under multiple economic scenarios, helping guide decision-making.

Purpose and intent

Establish a formal, recurring process to forecast the state’s fiscal position beyond the upcoming fiscal year.

Identify and disclose the trajectory of structural deficits under different economic conditions.

Improve transparency and inform budgeting decisions by providing a forward-looking view tied to the Governor’s proposed budget.

Key provisions

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The State Treasurer must annually submit a multi-year fiscal outlook analysis to the Governor and the Legislature.
- Reporting timeline (initial annual submission):
- Due on or before April 1 of each year (or the Treasurer’s first appearance before budget committees after the Governor’s budget message, whichever is earlier).
- Contents of the annual outlook (for the ensuing fiscal year and the next two years):
- Itemized projections of:
- All General Fund appropriations
- Other budgeted State revenues
- Other dedicated funds
- Federal aid and trust funds
- These amounts should use a current services basis and be adjusted for:
- Economic metrics
- Program expansions or eliminations previously enacted
- Caseload or population changes
- Distinct projections of any structural deficit under three economic scenarios (optimistic, pessimistic, baseline) for each fiscal year.
- Estimates of principal and interest for capital projects financed through general obligation bonds and appropriation-backed bonds issued by independent authorities.
- Explanations of underlying assumptions and methods for the above projections.
- Updated annual outlook (second submission):
- Due on or before May 31 (or the Treasurer’s second appearance before budget committees after the Governor’s budget message, whichever is earlier).
- Must include all items required in the initial annual outlook plus a statement explaining any revisions to the prior year’s analysis.
- Definitions:
- “Current services basis of budgeting” is a budgeting approach estimating the cost to maintain benefits, programs, and services at levels in the Governor’s proposed budget, adjusted for enrollments, caseloads, population, COLAs, and prior program changes.

Procedural and timeline aspects

The act takes effect immediately.

Requires two annual submissions:

First: around April 1 (or Treasurer’s first post-Governor’s budget appearance).
Second: around May 31 (or Treasurer’s second post-Governor’s budget appearance).

Each updated outlook must document revisions from the prior year’s analysis.

Potential impact

Enhances transparency regarding future budget challenges and potential deficits.

Provides a structured framework for evaluating the sustainability of Governor’s budget proposals.

Helps lawmakers and the public assess long-term fiscal risks under different economic conditions.

Could influence policy discussions by highlighting required budget adjustments to maintain services under various scenarios.

Bill