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Bill

HR 8838

Congressional Prediction Market Ban Act of 2026

119th Congress

Prohibits Members of Congress and their households from buying or benefiting from prediction markets, with annual certifications and penalties for violations.

Introduced in House
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WeVote Research Nonpartisan
Bill Summary · HR 8838

Overview

  • Bill: HR 8838, Congressional Prediction Market Ban Act of 2026
  • Purpose: Prohibit Members of Congress and their households from participating in prediction markets and to establish enforcement and guidance through the congressional ethics committees.
  • Status: Introduced May 14, 2026; referred to the House Committee on House Administration.

Main purpose and intent

  • To prevent Members of Congress and their household members from engaging in, being a party to, or benefiting from prediction market contracts (as defined by the bill).
  • To add a new subchapter to Title 5, United States Code (chapter 131) that creates a prohibition on participation in prediction markets, establishes definitions, sets certification/reporting requirements, and imposes penalties for violations.
  • To ensure transparency and oversight through congressional ethics committees with specified duties and public reporting.

Key provisions and changes

  • Section 13151. Definitions

    • Defines “Member of Congress” and “congressional ethics committees” as consistent with existing definitions in section 13101.
    • Defines “covered transaction” as a purchase, sale, or exchange of a prediction market contract.
    • Defines “prediction market contract” as any agreement or instrument related to an excluded commodity under the Commodity Exchange Act (7 U.S.C. 1a) that depends on the occurrence or nonoccurrence of a specific event, with one exclusion: it does not include insurance in which the insured has a lawful insurable interest.

  • Section 13152. Prohibition of participation in prediction markets

    • Prohibits a Member of Congress from engaging in, being a party to, or benefiting from a covered transaction.
    • Extends prohibition to benefits received by a Member’s household if a household member participates in a covered transaction and the transaction results in a payment or benefit to the Member or another household member.
    • Certification requirement: By January 15 of each calendar year, Members of the House must certify to the Clerk of the House; Members of the Senate must certify to the Secretary of the Senate that they complied with the prohibition for the most recent completed calendar year.
    • Public reporting: The Clerk of the House and the Secretary of the Senate must publish these certifications on their public websites.

  • Section 13153. Penalties

    • Investigations by relevant congressional ethics committees for non-compliance or credible reports of violations.
    • Penalties: The violator is fined an amount determined by the applicable House, with a floor of $10,000 or an amount equal to triple the profit gained from the violation, whichever is greater.
    • Fines payable to the Treasury as miscellaneous receipts.
    • Additional sanctions or remedies may be pursued per the rules of the respective ethics committee.

  • Section 13154. Duties of congressional ethics committees

    • Establish procedures for certification and reporting requirements.
    • Issue guidance on compliance.
    • Maintain and provide access to procedures and guidance on a public website.

  • Section 2. Technical amendment

    • Adds Subchapter IV to Chapter 131, with four sections: 13151–13154.

  • Section 3. Transition provisions

    • Within 90 days: Ethics committees to establish procedures and guidance.
    • Within 180 days: Members must begin compliance with the prohibitions.

Who is affected

  • Primary: Members of Congress (House and Senate).
  • Secondary: Household members of Members of Congress (in cases where a household member participates in a prohibited transaction leading to benefits for the household or Member).
  • Oversight bodies: Congressional ethics committees (procedural guidance, enforcement, and reporting duties).

Procedural and timeline aspects

  • Transition timeline:
    • Not later than 90 days after enactment: Ethics committees must establish procedures and guidance.
    • Not later than 180 days after enactment: Members must comply with the prohibition (begin compliance).
  • Certification:
    • Annual calendar-year certification due by January 15 for both House and Senate Members.
  • Transparency:
    • Certifications publicly posted on the Clerk of the House and Secretary of the Senate websites.

Potential impact and considerations

  • Creates a formal prohibition on prediction market participation by Members of Congress and household members, aligning with ethics and conflicts-of-interest concerns.
  • Introduces enforceable penalties, including monetary fines potentially equal to triple profits, increasing accountability.
  • Establishes mandatory annual disclosures, enhancing transparency of potential conflicts.
  • Could affect personal investment practices of Members and households by limiting participation in certain market activities.
  • Requires administrative processes within ethics committees to issue guidance and manage certifications.

Compiled from official sources — confirm details with the bill’s official record.

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